Super Tuesday Data Show Trump Wins Florida

NYT Upshot data show Trump did fine.  See persuasive chart of all four states last Tuesday.  Cruz soared and got his votes from Rubio's flameout.  Trump votes matched expectation.   

Cruz is going to scavenge Rubio's home state votes next Tuesday and let Trump romp home with 99 winner-take-all delegates.  We've read elsewhere that Cruz is okay with that, expecting Rubio to pull out leaving a two man race.

Minimum Wage Graphic To Torment Believers

If you don't read Small Dead Animals, here is the graphic you need to show people who believe $15/hour ought to be the minimum wage. and every job should get it.   They believe in magic boats.

Not a Typo: 14,000 wind turbines idle in US

When the subsidy's gone, the turbines are toast and there's no green cleanup squad.  Not hundreds but thousands are idle.  Read more at "American Elephant".
Excerpt:

"When it is time to clean up after a failed idea, no green environmentalists are to be found. Wind was free, natural, harnessing Earth’s bounty for the benefit of all mankind, sounded like a good idea. Wind turbines, like solar panels, break down. They produce less energy before they break down than the energy it took to make them. The wind does not blow all the time, or even most of the time. When it is not blowing, they require full-time backup from conventional power plants. Without government subsidy, they are unaffordable. With governments facing financial troubles, the subsidies are unaffordable. "

Re-stated:

They are rusting hulks and no environmentalists are willing to pay to scrap them.

They didn't earn their keep.

They killed thousands of raptors.

When wind power makes sense you will need no subsidy.

Monkeyi brain waves steer machines.

"Monkeys drive wheelchairs" - It's all over the internet this week. The new idea is wiring up not just one or two things but hundreds of nerve ends to capture complex signals, both to send and receive.  Duke University researchers passively pushed macaque monkeys through the grape reward pathway on fancy electric scooters.  The monkey brain waves were captured as they got close to the grapes.  Their own brain signals were later fed back to them to prompt those parts of the brain to fire up on their own.  The monkeys soon learned to amplify this and added distance-to-the-goal compensation too.

On line stories are mostly about quadraplegics getting a new lease on life.  What about the normal getting super abilities to do things remotely?  That includes work tasks.   There's a whole class of "handicapped" that we call senior citizens in care homes.   If old and infirm people (over 150 years old) move to their in-orbit weightless care homes to retire and have some brain implants too, what exactly distinguishes them from active people in their prime who get things done?
Link for video below.

Chimps share a stone throwing ritual belief, even when alone

These filmed chimpanzees share a symbolic behaviour.  They throw stones in a ceremonial way at a specific tree.  They throw these stones when no other chimp can see them.  The camera trap shows a succession of adult male and female chimps choosing a stone, looking around, then hucking it at the trunk and heading off.  Source: Scientific American

Vote Trump and His Daughter to the White House: Hugh Hewitt

Hugh Hewitt gives six reasons to vote Trump.  Ivanka Trump is number six.

"And, finally, sixth: Donald’s daughter and Svengali Ivanka is a smart, smart, smart lady with an extraordinary intellect and influence on her father. We get the GOP’s own Valerie Jarrett, only this one with a sense of America’s role in the world and the same resolve to succeed as Jarrett possesses."

It's not that Hugh would eagerly pick Trump and you remember Trump insulted Hugh after a "gotcha" interview back in September, but Hewitt has six good reasons to vote Trump:
The first three are the three supreme court judges he will probably get to nominate.  "Diane Sykes and Bill Pryor are two fine judges that Trump has mentioned as possible nominees and he made the right commitment on religious liberty to me on stage Thursday night."  Fourth, Donald is a builder and will rebuild the navy. Fifth, the rulers of China and Russia will think twice before crossing him.

"An extraordinary intellect and influence on her father". Hewitt has had her on his show.
Something to think about.
FDOTUS and executive vice president of the Trump Organization.

Two Clinton Funnies

h/t  powerlineblog
Security on a terrorist's iphone and who is Bill Clinton inclined to vote for?

Breitbart liveblogging the entire US election: "Horse Race Live Wire" is a new type of news.

Breitbart's "Horse Race Live Wire" page has over a 100 posts so far today, picking up within minutes all the political stories I've seen anywhere - the video clips - tweets - photographs - punditries - bon mots and scandals.  Reposted with links are all the stories that are making news in the primaries and caucuses including Bernie's and Hillary's doings.  Breitbart likes Trump.  Each day a new page is started with the "Horse Race Live Wire" theme.  Bookmark Breitbart and settle back.   During breaking news, the posts are minutes apart.   It's a new type of news.  I like it.

http://www.breitbart.com/
 

Last Minute Poll Trends In South Carolina

Chart from Real Clear Politics:

Good Fences Make Good Neighbours: The Vatican's is higher than the US-Mexico border.

The Pope made neẃs yesterday with his provocative mass at the Mexico-US border. I get the part about compassion for those who yearn for a better life but not for the right to break into someone else's place to get it.  His foray into US politics includes saying that someone who only wants to put up walls isn't a Christian.  It appears that only Donald Trump is the peg for that hole.  The Donald ripostes that the Pope should fear terrorists attacking the Vatican, as they have sworn they will.  John Nolte at Breitbart points out the Vatican is a walled city and far more secure than the US border with Mexico.

US Sidelined Or On Other Team in ME says Ambassador Crocker

Ryan Crocker who was the US Ambassador to Iraq in 2007 has this surprising report.  He's just back from a Middle East visit and the locals are debating two theories about the US:   One theory is that the US has been sidelined while Russia, Iran and Syria dominate.  The other theory is that the US is an active fourth member of the Russia-Iran axis.  Noteworthy for them is the US decision to fund Iran's hegemonic outreach by releasing billions.

Article at Power Line, "An Axis of Three or Four?"

Trump Presidency Guarantees Rebalancing Between Executive And Congress

The executive faithfully performs the will of congress, upholding the constitution but with discretion in times of war.   Trump, like Obama, thinks the President is the boss.  Unlike Obama, he won't get away with it.  Both sides of both houses of congress will unite to halter this populist parvenu.   This is the bedrock territory of DNCe and GOPe and they will defend it at last.

There have been decades of undeclared war at the president's discretion and that may not be cured, but fixing the balance between the Executive and Legislative branches will be front and center in 2016.

Source

White House Strategy Defeats US Military Tactics

Mark Moyar of the Hoover Institute exposes seven ways white house strategy has overridden and defeated US military tactics.  It's the president's prerogative to define strategy.  The article is the best review I've seen and covers Bush (43) and Obama's years. "Theories on democratization made Bush and Obama overly optimistic about the prospects for intervention in certain countries. " Missing only is the genius to explain how the White House should make better calls.

"When a country enjoys tactical military success as consistently as the United States, responsibility for strategic success must rest primarily with those who make strategy. The American military could be held culpable for recent strategic setbacks were it highly influential in the crafting of strategy. But its influence under the Bush administration was much more limited, and under the Obama administration its strategic advice has largely been ignored.

A review of America’s military interventions since 2001 reveals that seven broad errors account for America’s inability to turn tactical successes into strategic victories. These errors are described below. In every instance, the error was the direct result of presidential decisions on policy or strategy. Some of those decisions ran in direct contradiction of the military’s advice. The military can be faulted for some significant tactical errors, such as ignorance of counterinsurgency in the early years of the Iraq war and excessive reliance on population-centric counterinsurgency doctrine in the middle years of the Afghan war. But the military eventually corrected its major tactical problems, and none of those problems thwarted strategic success."

Super Delegates: "Where are Bernie's?" is the story.

News stories about Hillary having several hundred super delegates after the first two primaries are misleading.  Case in point, how did she end up with just 2 delegates more than Bernie if she has several hundred pledged super delegates?  The real story appears to be how little support Bernie Sanders has won, not how much Hillary Clinton has.

Some 4763 delegates are being picked for the nominating convention.  712 of those (less than 20%) are named in advance (super delegates).  They include "distinguished party leaders", senators, representatives, governors, and noteworthy party members. (See chart) As of today, Wikipedia reports 420 of those 712 have expressed a preference for Hillary Clinton but they may vote as they choose, unlike the delegates who are allocated from primaries.

When you read that Hillary has hundreds of delegates more than Bernie, this means she has about 10% of the convention vote preferring her to Bernie, a 10% that is free to change its vote.  How come Bernie Saunders doesn't have a roster of supporters too?  His independent, crusty style has cost him a network.

There's a reason why Sanders isn't getting the level of support Clinton is from Democratic Party leaders. While she has been a Democrat for decades, the same is not true for Sanders, who only caucuses with Democrats in the Senate. In fact, his Senate biography boasts that he is the "longest-serving independent member of Congress."

Not such a bad method either.  Super delegates don't stop change but they reduce the likelihood that small changes in the crowd's desire will steer the boat.  This is like following a four-year smoothed curve for a stock instead of following daily trading peaks and trenches.

Climate Change Science Not Settled Any More: Perfect Storm Of Hypocrisy.

Australian climate scientists about to lose their jobs suddenly discovered the science isn't settled.  The chief of Australia's science agency ( CSIRO) cited the success of AGW research as he announced a layoff of 300 now-redundant scientists to cover a $110 million budget hole.  The need for more science was rediscovered briskly.

“Climate science is not solved,” declared Todd Lane, president of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. “Most of the uncertainty in climate projections is due to uncertainty about the ways to represent physical processes in climate models.

Will Steffen, Emeritus Professor at ANU and a Climate Councillor at the Climate Council of Australia. "We absolutely need to know more about the basic operation of the climate system".

John Church, a CSIRO climate researcher since 1978 who anticipates losing his job. “There is a clear need for ongoing sustained and enhanced observations. The science community is actually struggling to address these issues.”

I called this "hypocrisy" in the lede unfairly.  The AGW triumphalism was the hypocrisy.  This is a return to a more normal scientific state where hypothesis leads to tests and everything settled is tested and retested as knowledge comes to light.  So I hope.

Alzheimers disappearing

I'd prefer tau gene repair to more assisted living spaces in Canada's health budgets. The big story while we wait to live forever is that  the rate of dementia has been going down rapidly, 20% every decade for the last four decades. There's so many more of us living long that our absolute numbers have gone up but the big news is the rate per thousand has plummeted.  The reason why is still a mystery.

And then there's this:  "A cure for the disorder is five to ten years away". The news story is targeted at one form of dementia responsible for 20% of the disorder.

Taking it easy like in the
good old days.
Not about to happen

Assisted living is fine.  Radical renewal of adults is better. Top that up with a policy cure and cultural shift for seniors who want work and pension income until age 130 and beyond.


The rate of change is not slowing down.  There's no mean to revert to this side of the bronze age.

Gravitational Waves From Ancient Black Hole Orgasm Detected Live

The night of September 14th, three observatories tracked a fractional second orgasm of two black hole stars collapsing into each other as their mating circle climaxed 1.3 billion years ago.   Gravitational waves from the disappeared matter were detected in triplicate, milliseconds apart, on earth.   Thank you for atomic clocks, curious minds, and confirmation of Einstein's prediction that such waves exist.

http://www.sciencealert.com/live-update-big-gravitational-wave-announcement-is-happening-right-now

Image from linked story
where more information is posted.

Trump - Nothing like the guy you see on television. Bring on the copycats.

After reading this warm-hearted anecdote, you may agree with me that Canada and the USA need Trump to come a very close second "pour encourager les autres".  Even a spectacular near miss will bring out bolder candidates for the next election, men and women with the confidence to run for high office with plain talk and an open heart for our country.

From the comments at Hot Air:

"  In 1989 I hitchhiked around America. At one point I found myself on the Island of Nantucket. It was early May, the height of Nantucket’s tourist season. I was pretty much out of money and bought myself a pack of hot dogs for supper.  I went to the harbor to eat them while watching the boats sail around the Island. On one of the private docks there are bungalows that belong to slip owners. Out in front of one of those bungalows was a man grilling several steaks.
   He saw me eating my raw hot dogs and offered to let me cook them on his grill. I put a couple of hot dogs on his grill, and gratefully accepted the beer he offered me. Then, to my surprise, as he was flipping one of his steaks, he knocked my hot dogs into the coals.
He feigned surprise and apologized, and gave me one of the steaks he was grilling.
Yes… the man I am talking about is Donald Trump. No, in 1998 I had no idea who Donald Trump was. I did not find out who he was for several more months.
   During the time were were sitting there drinking Heineken’s and eating our steaks we talked. For probably about 2 and a half to 3 hours. The private Donald Trump is nothing like the person you guys see on television. His sense of humor is slightly ribald, he is soft spoken and gentle. He is amazingly comfortable in his own skin. If the nominee, I am still not sure I will vote for him. But this I do know, anyone expecting him to be rude or snide in victory or even in defeat, have no clue who Donald Trump really is. They are making up a version of him in their own minds, that does not exist."

$170 Trillion Markdown on Oil Reserves

At my shop in the Okanagan, I've been running into skilled Alberta people looking for work.  That never happened before.

Proven oil reserves in the world: >1.7 trillion barrels.
The market value of that oil declined by $100/barrel in the last18 months.
$170 trillion US$ that people were borrowing and lending on has disappeared.

Wikipedia:  GDP of the world economy in 2014 =  $77 trillion. 
The lesser is moved by the greater.  This has got to matter.

And from Zero Hedge:  "Dallas Fed Quietly Suspends Energy Mark-To-Market On Default Contagion Fears".

Baby names rate the Presidents. Hillary is Toast.

This baby name chart has two surprises.  Listed is baby name popularity matched up to the terms of Presidents and their First Ladies.  Two stand out with a flash-in-the-pan mania followed by active revulsion:    Bill Clinton's wife and Michelle Obama's husband.  Conclusion:  Hillary will be bumped by Biden or Sanders for 2016.  All the other names show the normal decline in popularity as older people tend to have names that have gone out of fashion.  No adulatory bump for them.